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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."